Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 0.008606 0.009712 0.010908 0.012298 0.013869 0.015590 0.017620
2025-12-21 0.006607 0.008072 0.009788 0.011946 0.014592 0.017734 0.021755
2025-12-28 0.005804 0.007491 0.009577 0.012351 0.015950 0.020470 0.026596
2026-01-04 0.005175 0.006985 0.009326 0.012582 0.017006 0.022826 0.031093
2026-01-11 0.004717 0.006619 0.009175 0.012874 0.018105 0.025268 0.035871
2026-01-18 0.004226 0.006137 0.008796 0.012780 0.018622 0.026913 0.039643
2026-01-25 0.003844 0.005760 0.008511 0.012768 0.019217 0.028674 0.043695
2026-02-01 0.003469 0.005350 0.008131 0.012561 0.019479 0.029937 0.047074
2026-02-08 0.003218 0.005098 0.007956 0.012636 0.020156 0.031854 0.051595
2026-02-15 0.002957 0.004806 0.007688 0.012532 0.020528 0.033303 0.055469
2026-02-22 0.002807 0.004675 0.007658 0.012797 0.021502 0.035774 0.061208
2026-03-01 0.002542 0.004330 0.007252 0.012403 0.021341 0.036352 0.063777
2026-03-08 0.002338 0.004074 0.006976 0.012214 0.021523 0.037544 0.067559
2026-03-15 0.002127 0.003788 0.006626 0.011867 0.021402 0.038200 0.070448
2026-03-22 0.002060 0.003749 0.006699 0.012270 0.022642 0.041348 0.078141
2026-03-29 0.001971 0.003663 0.006679 0.012499 0.023579 0.044012 0.085152
2026-04-05 0.001898 0.003598 0.006693 0.012789 0.024647 0.046997 0.093027
2026-04-12 0.001779 0.003437 0.006515 0.012696 0.024972 0.048592 0.098302
2026-04-19 0.001680 0.003307 0.006384 0.012684 0.025447 0.050507 0.104371
2026-04-26 0.001566 0.003138 0.006165 0.012478 0.025516 0.051619 0.108875
2026-05-03 0.001494 0.003047 0.006089 0.012553 0.026159 0.053929 0.116081
2026-05-10 0.001408 0.002920 0.005933 0.012450 0.026422 0.055473 0.121773
2026-05-17 0.001366 0.002880 0.005952 0.012713 0.027477 0.058753 0.131536